Should I wait to buy better solar panels in the future?

This is a very common question in not just the solar energy space, but really for any technology. We have heard many times that solar panels have been getting cheaper while the technology becomes more efficient. If this growth is exponential, why not wait for future tech?

This was the reality for solar panels for many years in the early stages. Heavy investment from Government's around the world helped push the price down and efficiencies up.

However what we've seen most recently is a change in that trend. Solar panel prices have come down 89% over the last 10 years, however those reductions in price are starting to flatten out.

Actually in the past year, prices for solar panels have gone up, not down, due to recent supply chain issues as well as sky high inflation. The other thing to consider is that solar panels, unlike many other technologies, is completely tied to the price of labour which is also rising. This means that we will never see the day where panels cost $1,000 to power an entire house. The price of solar has a floor, and it looks like we've found it.

In terms of efficiency, it is important to know that there is an upper limit of solar panel efficiencies with the current technology. Due to this, we see very tiny incremental increases in efficiency. A far cry from the leaps in efficiency that was once common in the earlier stages of it's life cycle.

While there are plenty of experiments done in labs with new panel technology. Many of these are highly volatileoutside of lab settings, tough to scale, and extremely expensive. The reason why current panels cost so little is because of the massive global manufacturing infrastructure to support it.

Aside from this, there is also the consideration of Government incentives. Generally, Governments place incentives such as the $5,000 Canada Greener Homes Program into place to incentivize Canadians to purchase solar panels, help grow an industry and create jobs, as well as change the course of the country's energy mix. When solar panels first started taking off in Canada, the Government offered extremely lucrative incentives. This was due to the high cost of a system (an average house could cost $80k - $100k). As the cost has come down, and the price of electricity from the utilities has gone up, people are more motivated on their own to get solar, even before the incentives are in the picture. Today the Federal Government offers up to $5,000 if you decide to go solar.

The point is that Government incentives start high, and over time, as demand naturally grows, the incentives dwindle.

If the Government offers you $5,000 to go solar today, and you decide to go solar in 5 years when there's no longer an incentive, the price of a system will have to have dropped at least $5,000 in those 5 years to essentially have the same offer you had originally.

Based on current data, that does not seem to be likely.

Of course there are other, personal factors that could get in your way of going solar today. But if you're waiting for the day better technology comes at a lower price, i'm afraid to say that day may not come.

How much would solar panels for your home cost anyway? Use our quick calculation to find out!